Spatiotemporal Variation, Driving Mechanism and Predictive Study of Total Column Ozone: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

Total column ozone (TCO) describes the amount of in entire atmosphere. Many scholars have used lower resolution data to study TCO different regions, but new phenomena can be discovered using high-precision and high-resolution data. This paper long time, high accuracy, MSR2 dataset (2000–2019) analyze spatial temporal variation characteristics over Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration explore relationship between meteorological socio-economic factors. The correlations climatic factors driving forces on variability were also analyzed, mathematical models constructed fit for past 20 years predict future trend TCO. results show following. (1) area exhibited a quasi-latitudinal distribution, following slight downtrend during 2000–2019 (0.01 ± 0.18 DU per year) achieved its maximum 2010 minimum 2019; throughout year, an inverted V-shaped cycle characterizes monthly TCO; was significantly higher spring than summer autumn winter. (2) Precipitation absorbed aerosol index (AAI) had critical effects distribution TCO, weakly correlated with annual subject game interactions external changes not synergy that other factors, significant hysteresis effect by 3–5 months. Socio-economic influence area. (3) Fourier function model well describe history shows fluctuating upward (0.27 1.35 next 11 years. enriches theoretical technical system research, provide necessary basis simulation forecasting.